The Mexican peso continues its appreciation trajectory against the dollar and this Wednesday it has reached a new minimum not seen in the last seven and a half yearsaccording to data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) at the end of the day.
With an appreciation of 17 cents per greenback or a variation of 1%, the so-called “superpeso” traded at 16.89 units per dollar, after ending the day before at 17.05 pesos.
This level was similar to the minimum it obtained when it touched 16.82 pesos per dollar, a level slightly lower than that of December 7, 2015, when it reached 16.83 pesos.
The director of Economic and Financial Analysis of Banco Base, Gabriela Siller, explained to EFE that the This day’s appreciation was largely due to the inflation data in the United States, “which was below market expectations.”
Which, he added, “generates the expectation that it will be the last increase in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve, which would reach a ceiling of between 5.25 and 5.5%.”
perspectives
Siller stressed thatalthough the path of appreciation of the peso remains “very clear” since July of last year, the trend shows that after a depreciation of 7%, it falls back by 4%.
This, he added, “means that if the peso continues on this trajectory, it could reach a level of 16.74 pesos per dollar this summer” and “later rebound to levels close to 17.30 pesos per dollar.”
Siller estimated that the Mexican currency could fall back to levels of 16.4 pesos per dollar and later, it could be located in a range between 16.74 and 16.4 pesos. per dollar until the following year.
This, “after the elections in Mexico -June 2024-, if there is no negative surprise that generates risk aversion on the Mexican economy,” said the specialist.
He added that, from a technical approach, the indicators show that the downward trend continues.
Although, he highlighted that some oscillation indicators show that the strength of the downward trend that the exchange rate has had in Mexico “so far, is weakening, which means that, going forward, breaking the minimum levels could be more difficult”.
“Nearshoring”, an appreciation factor
According to an analysis by the firm Grupo Financiero Actinver, the relocation of companies in Mexico or “nearshoring” has benefited the exchange rate by up to 2.5 pesoswhich means that the exchange rate should be close to 19.5 pesos per dollar.
Within this framework, Actinver foresees “a technical space” to maintain its advance to 16.50 units per greenback and reach a turning point for its stabilization in the second half of the year.
Meanwhile, the consensus of private analysts expects it to close the year at 18.30 pesos per dollar, according to the latest Citibanamex survey.
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